Research Report — March 2026
The State of AI Alpha
How AI is reshaping alpha generation, portfolio risk, and institutional due diligence.
A research report for institutional allocators and fund managers covering what works, what doesn't, and the invisible risks most allocators cannot yet see.
Why 85% of general-purpose AI for portfolio work fails—and what the other 15% do differently
The approaches generating genuine structural edge (HRT, Numerai, BlindTrade)
Portfolio risks from correlated AI failure, infrastructure bonds entering IG, and fee compression
A practical due diligence toolkit for evaluating AI claims
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Who this is for
CIO / Head of Allocations
The thesis, portfolio risks, macro implications, and action steps.
Manager Selection / Due Diligence
What fails, what works, and a practical evaluation toolkit.
Quant Fund Manager
Benchmark yourself against the approaches generating real edge.
Board / IC Member
Minimum viable understanding: the thesis plus three critical threads.
Three global observations
Most AI-in-investing claims fail basic empirical tests.
A narrow set of approaches are generating genuine structural edge.
AI is creating portfolio risks most allocators cannot yet see.